{"id":8604,"date":"2026-03-17T12:44:56","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T12:44:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nuevaprensaamerica.com\/?p=8604"},"modified":"2026-03-17T12:44:56","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T12:44:56","slug":"geopolitica-y-comercio-ilegal-por-juan-carlos-buitrago","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nuevaprensaamerica.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/17\/geopolitica-y-comercio-ilegal-por-juan-carlos-buitrago\/","title":{"rendered":"Geopol\u00edtica y comercio ilegal por Juan Carlos Buitrago"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hay <\/span>a\u00f1os <\/span>que <\/span>marcan <\/span>inflexiones <\/span>en <\/span>las <\/span>historias. <\/span>2026 <\/span>es <\/span>uno <\/span>de <\/span>ellos. <\/span>No <\/span>porque <\/span>de <\/span>repente <\/span>haya <\/span>aparecido <\/span>el <\/span>comercio <\/span>ilegal <\/span>en <\/span>Latinoam\u00e9rica, <\/span>sino <\/span>porque <\/span>las <\/span>fuerzas <\/span>que <\/span>lo <\/span>alimentan <\/span>no <\/span>tienen <\/span>precedentes. <\/span>Las <\/span>guerras <\/span>arancelarias, <\/span>la <\/span>agresividad <\/span>exportadora <\/span>de <\/span>China, <\/span>la <\/span>nueva <\/span>doctrina <\/span>hemisf\u00e9rica <\/span>de <\/span>Estados <\/span>Unidos, <\/span>el <\/span>fortalecimiento <\/span>del <\/span>crimen <\/span>organizado <\/span>transnacional, <\/span>la <\/span>corrupci\u00f3n <\/span>y <\/span>la <\/span>fragilidad <\/span>institucional, <\/span>se <\/span>han <\/span>fusionado <\/span>en <\/span>un <\/span>caldo <\/span>de <\/span>cultivo <\/span>inesperado. <\/span>Lo <\/span>que <\/span>antes <\/span>era <\/span>una <\/span>falla <\/span>de <\/span>cumplimiento <\/span>aduanero <\/span>hoy <\/span>es, <\/span>en <\/span>muchos <\/span>casos, <\/span>una <\/span>herramienta <\/span>deliberada <\/span>dentro <\/span>de <\/span>estrategias <\/span>geoecon\u00f3micas <\/span>de <\/span>Estado, <\/span>que <\/span>parad\u00f3jicamente, <\/span>abren <\/span>una <\/span>peligrosa <\/span>compuerta <\/span>a <\/span>los <\/span>sistemas <\/span>de <\/span>econom\u00eda <\/span>criminal.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Y <\/span>lo <\/span>que <\/span>m\u00e1s <\/span>preocupa <\/span>no <\/span>es <\/span>el <\/span>volumen <\/span>del <\/span>contrabando, <\/span>ni <\/span>la <\/span>cantidad <\/span>de <\/span>incautaciones. <\/span>Es <\/span>la <\/span>normalizaci\u00f3n. <\/span>Las <\/span>econom\u00edas <\/span>criminales, <\/span>que <\/span>rivalizan <\/span>con <\/span>el <\/span>PIB <\/span>de <\/span>varias <\/span>naciones <\/span>de <\/span>la <\/span>regi\u00f3n. <\/span>Se <\/span>estima <\/span>que <\/span>el <\/span>comercio <\/span>ilegal <\/span>representa <\/span>el <\/span>3% <\/span>de <\/span>la <\/span>econom\u00eda <\/span>global <\/span>y <\/span>el <\/span>27% <\/span>de <\/span>los <\/span>il\u00edcitos <\/span>en <\/span>Ecuador. <\/span>Estos <\/span>no <\/span>son <\/span>nichos <\/span>marginales, <\/span>son <\/span>mercados <\/span>masivos <\/span>capturados <\/span>por <\/span>mafias <\/span>que <\/span>operan <\/span>con <\/span>mayor <\/span>eficiencia <\/span>log\u00edstica <\/span>que <\/span>muchas <\/span>empresas <\/span>formales. <\/span>Cuando <\/span>la <\/span>informalidad <\/span>y <\/span>la <\/span>ilegalidad <\/span>se <\/span>convierten <\/span>en <\/span>norma, <\/span>el <\/span>problema <\/span>deja <\/span>de <\/span>ser <\/span>policial, <\/span>es <\/span>una <\/span>estructura.<\/span><\/p>\n

La <\/span>guerra <\/span>comercial <\/span>entre <\/span>China <\/span>y <\/span>Estados <\/span>Unidos <\/span>tiene <\/span>efectos <\/span>que <\/span>pocos <\/span>anticiparon, <\/span>convirtiendo <\/span>Latinoam\u00e9rica <\/span>en <\/span>campo <\/span>de <\/span>batalla <\/span>de <\/span>una <\/span>disputa <\/span>que <\/span>ya <\/span>no <\/span>se <\/span>libra <\/span>con <\/span>balas <\/span>sino <\/span>con <\/span>contenedores. <\/span>China, <\/span>atrapada <\/span>en <\/span>una <\/span>deflaci\u00f3n <\/span>severa, <\/span>vuelca <\/span>su <\/span>exceso <\/span>de <\/span>producci\u00f3n <\/span>hacia <\/span>nuestra <\/span>regi\u00f3n <\/span>a <\/span>precios <\/span>que <\/span>la <\/span>industria <\/span>local <\/span>simplemente <\/span>no <\/span>puede <\/span>competir, <\/span>ocurre <\/span>con <\/span>el <\/span>calzado <\/span>en <\/span>M\u00e9xico, <\/span>la <\/span>cer\u00e1mica <\/span>en <\/span>Per\u00fa, <\/span>el <\/span>aluminio, <\/span>la <\/span>agroindustria <\/span>y <\/span>los <\/span>scooters <\/span>en <\/span>Colombia. <\/span>Industrias <\/span>enteras <\/span>est\u00e1n <\/span>siendo <\/span>diezmadas, <\/span>mientras <\/span>el <\/span>flujo <\/span>masivo <\/span>de <\/span>manufactura <\/span>las <\/span>aplasta <\/span>y <\/span>facilita <\/span>el <\/span>tr\u00e1fico <\/span>de <\/span>productos <\/span>falsificados <\/span>y <\/span>de <\/span>contrabando.<\/span><\/p>\n

A <\/span>esto <\/span>se <\/span>suma <\/span>una <\/span>amenaza <\/span>que <\/span>evoluciona <\/span>m\u00e1s <\/span>r\u00e1pido <\/span>que <\/span>nuestra <\/span>capacidad <\/span>de <\/span>respuesta: <\/span>la <\/span>digitalizaci\u00f3n <\/span>criminal. <\/span>La <\/span>inteligencia <\/span>artificial <\/span>ya <\/span>no <\/span>es <\/span>solo <\/span>una <\/span>herramienta <\/span>del <\/span>sector <\/span>formal, \u201c<\/span>emprendedores <\/span>del <\/span>crimen\u201d <\/span>la <\/span>usan <\/span>para <\/span>falsificar <\/span>documentos <\/span>aduaneros, <\/span>crear <\/span>plataformas <\/span>de <\/span>e-<\/span>commerce <\/span>ilegal <\/span>y <\/span>homologar <\/span>la <\/span>cadena <\/span>de <\/span>comercio <\/span>electr\u00f3nico <\/span>formal <\/span>con <\/span>productos <\/span>falsificados <\/span>a <\/span>escala <\/span>industrial. <\/span>El <\/span>96% <\/span>de <\/span>las <\/span>farmacias <\/span>ilegales <\/span>ya <\/span>opera <\/span>fuera <\/span>de <\/span>la <\/span>ley <\/span>y <\/span>el <\/span>50% <\/span>de <\/span>las <\/span>medicinas <\/span>que <\/span>se <\/span>comercializan <\/span>por <\/span>internet <\/span>son <\/span>adulteradas. <\/span>Los <\/span>mercados <\/span>populares <\/span>tradicionales <\/span>como <\/span>Tepito <\/span>en <\/span>M\u00e9xico, <\/span>La <\/span>Terminal <\/span>en <\/span>Guatemala, <\/span>La <\/span>Salada <\/span>en <\/span>Argentina, <\/span>Los <\/span>San <\/span>Andresitos <\/span>en <\/span>Colombia, <\/span>entre <\/span>otros, <\/span>hace <\/span>a\u00f1os <\/span>escalaron <\/span>al <\/span>entorno <\/span>digital.<\/span><\/p>\n

En <\/span>Colombia <\/span>y <\/span>Per\u00fa, <\/span>la <\/span>miner\u00eda <\/span>criminal <\/span>ya <\/span>compite <\/span>con <\/span>el <\/span>narcotr\u00e1fico <\/span>como <\/span>fuente <\/span>de <\/span>financiamiento <\/span>de <\/span>grupos <\/span>armados. <\/span>El <\/span>oro, <\/span>el <\/span>colt\u00e1n <\/span>y <\/span>el <\/span>esta\u00f1o, <\/span>minerales <\/span>de <\/span>la <\/span>transici\u00f3n <\/span>energ\u00e9tica <\/span>global, <\/span>se <\/span>han <\/span>convertido <\/span>en <\/span>el <\/span>nuevo <\/span>petr\u00f3leo <\/span>del <\/span>crimen, <\/span>mientras <\/span>que <\/span>la <\/span>Amazon\u00eda <\/span>enfrenta <\/span>una <\/span>seria <\/span>amenaza. <\/span>Y <\/span>el <\/span>mercurio <\/span>traficado <\/span>desde <\/span>M\u00e9xico, <\/span>tambi\u00e9n <\/span>silenciosamente <\/span>hacia <\/span>las <\/span>hidrograf\u00edas <\/span>de <\/span>toda <\/span>Am\u00e9rica <\/span>Latina, <\/span>ha <\/span>crecido <\/span>de <\/span>forma <\/span>alarmante.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por <\/span>otro <\/span>lado, <\/span>este <\/span>3 <\/span>de <\/span>enero <\/span>con <\/span>la <\/span>captura <\/span>de <\/span>un <\/span>dictador <\/span>Nicol\u00e1s <\/span>Maduro, <\/span>se <\/span>marca <\/span>un <\/span>punto <\/span>de <\/span>ruptura <\/span>en <\/span>la <\/span>frontera <\/span>con <\/span>Venezuela. <\/span>Las <\/span>redes <\/span>criminales <\/span>sienten <\/span>pasos <\/span>de <\/span>animal <\/span>gigante <\/span>y <\/span>se <\/span>desplazan <\/span>hacia <\/span>el <\/span>vecindario. <\/span>Colombia, <\/span>Ecuador, <\/span>Costa <\/span>Rica, <\/span>Panam\u00e1 <\/span>con <\/span>marcada <\/span>injerencia <\/span>del <\/span>Tren <\/span>de <\/span>Aragua <\/span>y <\/span>el <\/span>cartel <\/span>Jalisco <\/span>Nueva <\/span>Generaci\u00f3n, <\/span>se <\/span>disputan <\/span>los <\/span>mercados <\/span>ilegales <\/span>y <\/span>el <\/span>control <\/span>de <\/span>pasos <\/span>fronterizos <\/span>terrestres <\/span>y <\/span>mar\u00edtimos <\/span>con <\/span>otras <\/span>bandas <\/span>criminales. <\/span>Las <\/span>rutas <\/span>cambian, <\/span>los <\/span>actores <\/span>se <\/span>adaptan, <\/span>pero <\/span>la <\/span>mercanc\u00eda <\/span>ilegal <\/span>sigue <\/span>fluyendo, <\/span>y <\/span>la <\/span>violencia <\/span>en <\/span>ciudades <\/span>portuarias <\/span>se <\/span>incrementa <\/span>por <\/span>encima <\/span>del <\/span>40% <\/span>en <\/span>Latam & <\/span>Caribe.<\/span><\/p>\n

La <\/span>respuesta <\/span>a <\/span>estos <\/span>desaf\u00edos <\/span>es <\/span>integral, <\/span>regional, <\/span>sin <\/span>fronteras <\/span>y <\/span>no <\/span>puede <\/span>ser <\/span>aislada <\/span>absoluta. <\/span>Los <\/span>riesgos <\/span>son <\/span>inminentes <\/span>para <\/span>el <\/span>2026, <\/span>as\u00ed <\/span>lo <\/span>establece <\/span>la <\/span>Central <\/span>de <\/span>Investigaci\u00f3n, <\/span>Monitoreo <\/span>y <\/span>An\u00e1lisis <\/span>del <\/span>Comercio <\/span>Il\u00edcito <\/span>CIMA, <\/span>en <\/span>un <\/span>ejercicio <\/span>realizado <\/span>con <\/span>rigurosidad <\/span>t\u00e9cnica <\/span>y <\/span>aporte <\/span>de <\/span>expertos.<\/span><\/p>\n

El <\/span>exceso <\/span>de <\/span>proteccionismo <\/span>y <\/span>las <\/span>regulaciones <\/span>inapropiadas <\/span>conllevan <\/span>consecuencias <\/span>perversas, <\/span>crean <\/span>espacios <\/span>al <\/span>comercio <\/span>ilegal, <\/span>a <\/span>la <\/span>evasi\u00f3n <\/span>fiscal <\/span>y <\/span>al <\/span>lavado <\/span>de <\/span>dinero. <\/span>Para <\/span>citar <\/span>un <\/span>ejemplo, <\/span>la <\/span>proscripci\u00f3n <\/span>de <\/span>vapeadores <\/span>y <\/span>cigarrillos <\/span>electr\u00f3nicos <\/span>en <\/span>M\u00e9xico <\/span>gener\u00f3 <\/span>un <\/span>mercado <\/span>clandestino <\/span>generalizado <\/span>que <\/span>mueve <\/span>millones <\/span>de <\/span>d\u00f3lares <\/span>en <\/span>asocio <\/span>con <\/span>el <\/span>narcotr\u00e1fico. <\/span>Adem\u00e1s <\/span>de <\/span>la <\/span>necesaria <\/span>cooperaci\u00f3n <\/span>entre <\/span>inteligencia <\/span>financiera, <\/span>aduanas, <\/span>la <\/span>justicia <\/span>y <\/span>el <\/span>sector <\/span>privado, <\/span>es <\/span>imperativo <\/span>intervenir <\/span>los <\/span>puertos, <\/span>atacar <\/span>la <\/span>corrupci\u00f3n <\/span>y <\/span>educar <\/span>al <\/span>consumidor, <\/span>que <\/span>bien <\/span>o <\/span>mal <\/span>intencionado, <\/span>contribuye <\/span>a <\/span>robustecer <\/span>el <\/span>crimen <\/span>organizado.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por <\/span>ahora, <\/span>la <\/span>iniciativa <\/span>de <\/span>Trump, <\/span>creando <\/span>la <\/span>alianza \u201c<\/span>Escudo <\/span>de <\/span>las <\/span>Am\u00e9ricas\u201d, <\/span>con <\/span>17 <\/span>mandatarios <\/span>del <\/span>hemisferio, <\/span>es <\/span>una <\/span>medida <\/span>en <\/span>la <\/span>direcci\u00f3n <\/span>correcta. <\/span>No <\/span>obstante, <\/span>la <\/span>ausencia <\/span>de <\/span>los <\/span>protagonistas <\/span>m\u00e1s <\/span>relevantes <\/span>en <\/span>la <\/span>lucha <\/span>contra <\/span>el <\/span>narcotr\u00e1fico, <\/span>Colombia, <\/span>M\u00e9xico <\/span>y <\/span>Brasil, <\/span>pa\u00edses <\/span>que <\/span>afrontar\u00e1n <\/span>con <\/span>severidad <\/span>las <\/span>consecuencias <\/span>negativas <\/span>del <\/span>efecto <\/span>globo, <\/span>una <\/span>vez <\/span>se <\/span>intensifiquen <\/span>las <\/span>acciones <\/span>militares <\/span>en <\/span>sus <\/span>territorios <\/span>vecinos, <\/span>pa\u00edses <\/span>miembros <\/span>de <\/span>la <\/span>alianza. <\/span>El <\/span>blindaje <\/span>de <\/span>las <\/span>fronteras <\/span>debe <\/span>ser <\/span>inminente.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hay a\u00f1os que marcan inflexiones en las historias. 2026 es uno de ellos. No porque de repente haya aparecido el comercio ilegal en Latinoam\u00e9rica, sino […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8607,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"h5ap_radio_sources":[],"_FSMCFIC_featured_image_caption":"","_FSMCFIC_featured_image_nocaption":"","_FSMCFIC_featured_image_hide":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-colombia"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/nuevaprensaamerica.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/WhatsApp-Image-2026-03-14-at-17.19.59.jpeg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nuevaprensaamerica.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8604","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nuevaprensaamerica.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nuevaprensaamerica.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nuevaprensaamerica.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nuevaprensaamerica.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8604"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/nuevaprensaamerica.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8604\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8606,"href":"https:\/\/nuevaprensaamerica.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8604\/revisions\/8606"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nuevaprensaamerica.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8607"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nuevaprensaamerica.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nuevaprensaamerica.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nuevaprensaamerica.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}